Bangladesh-Turkey: The scenario of a growing bilateral trade

Written by Enamul Hafiz Latifee,

State of Export and Import of Turkey is as below, 

Data Source: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist

Observation:

1.  Import declined at the last year but from 2010, the motive to import is rising. However, from 2005-2008 import was rising but at 2009 it dropped down; similarly, from 2010 it is again was rising which has slightly fell down in 2014; so there is a possibility to have the history repeated here.
2. At 2013 Export dropped down slightly, and during 2009 it dropped down heavily, otherwise Export trend is in growing motive at last decade.
3. From 2005-2014 always the Trade Balance is negative which is illustrated in Figure 2, however it got worse after 2010 but at 2012 and 2014, Trade Balance got narrowed in favor of Turkey.

Data Source: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist

Ready-Made Garments  import scenario by Turkey from Bangladesh and World,

Year	Import of HS61 by TR from BD (USD in millions)	Import growth % of HS61 by TR from BD	Import of HS62 by TR from BD (USD in millions)	Import growth % of HS62 by TR from BD	Import of HS61 by TR from World (USD in millions)	Import growth % of HS61 by TR from World	Import of HS62 by TR from World (USD in millions)	Import growth % of HS62 by TR from World
2001	0.826		0.255		83.731		113.056
2002	1.074	30.02421308	0.389	52.54901961	90.724	8.351745471	147.272	30.26464761
2003	2.969	176.443203	3.523	805.655527	140.508	54.87412372	230.075	56.22453691
2004	10.668	259.3129	10.317	192.8470054	224.454	59.74464087	352.6	53.25437357
2005	17.068	59.99250094	22.695	119.9767374	252.711	12.5892165	433.39	22.91264889
2006	40.677	138.3231779	38.529	69.76867151	374.778	48.30300224	579.701	33.7596622
2007	82.087	101.8020011	76.153	97.65111994	539.045	43.83048098	857.974	48.00284974
2008	168.664	105.4698064	170.082	123.3424816	761.127	41.19915777	1230.924	43.4686832
2009	230.914	36.90769815	184.256	8.333627309	752.701	-1.107042583	1157.429	-5.970717932
2010	342.726	48.42149025	305.103	65.58646666	1007.371	33.83415194	1550.014	33.91871121
2011	313.913	-8.407007347	370.183	21.3305015	1084.899	7.696072251	1874.313	20.92232715
2012	186.108	-40.71350979	350.428	-5.336549761	843.394	-22.26059753	1497.868	-20.0844256
2013	238.26	28.02243858	541.979	54.66201331	941.224	11.59956082	1862.919	24.37137318
2014	214.339	-10.03987241	552.761	1.989375972	985.001	4.651071371	1882.863	1.070577948

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Observation:

1. From Figure 3, we see that HS61 and HS62 import by Turkey from Bangladesh have almost similar properties however, in 2012 and 2014 while HS62 import by Turkey rose then HS61 import by Turkey from Bangladesh fell down.
2. During 2001-2014, the trend of RMG import by Turkey from Bangladesh is in rising motive.

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Comparative RMG import growth by Turkey from Bangladesh and World,

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Observation:

1. From Figure 4, it is seen that import growth (%) of HS61 from Bangladesh and World had followed the same trend, but the exceptions were at 2008 while HS61 import by Turkey from Bangladesh grew slightly but import by Turkey from World fell down.

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Observation:

1. From Figure 5, it is observed that the growth of import of HS62 by Turkey from Bangladesh and World had followed the similar trend since 2001, but there was an exception in 2006 when HS62 import from World grew but from Bangladesh fell down by Turkey.

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Data Source: ITC TradeMap

Observation:

1. HS62 import share of Bangladesh to World by Turkey had continuously risen from 2001 to 2014, but there was slump growth in market share in 2011 comparing to 2010 and same in 2014 comparing to 2013, at point to point basis.

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations:

1.  Due to depreciation is USD and Euro, import by Turkey has fallen that of HS61 from Bangladesh and also HS62 could not cause that much higher rise during 2014.
2. Turkey has several FTAs with custom unions and countries, if with Bangladesh it takes place then it is expected to see a rise in overall import by Turkey from Bangladesh in forthcoming years.
3. Bangladesh RMG sector can closely work with Turkish Fashion House by initiating joint ventures for making fashionable RMG products; this will help Turkey to re-export RMG products imported from Bangladesh to EU and other countries, specially to those countries and custom unions with whom Turkey has FTA.
4.  Bangladeshi RMG manufacturers and exporters collectively can launch Warehouse in Turkey which will lessen down Lead time of RMG products to deliver and will work as stimuli to accelerate the rate of re-export from Turkey to other commercially benefitted countries and custom unions. Ultimately it will help narrowing the Trade Balance of Turkey and Bangladesh, both.

© Enamul Hafiz Latifee