১৪.৪৪৮%: একটি হিসাব এবং একটি নির্বাচন

১০ম সাধারণ নির্বাচনে ১৫৩ আসনে আগেই বিনা প্রতিদ্বন্দিতায় সাংসদ নির্বাচিত হওয়ায়, ভোট দেবার ক্ষমতা পূর্বেই হারিয়েছিলেন ৫২% ভোটার (১)।

এরপর যখন নির্বাচন ৫ই জানুয়ারি অনুষ্ঠিত হয়, তখন আসলে ভোট প্রদান করার ক্ষমতা ছিল বাংলাদেশের (১০০- ৫২)%= ৪৮% ভোটারের।

তখন দেখা যায়, সরকারের পক্ষ থেকে দাবি করা হলো এবং পরবর্তীতে দেখা গেলো নির্বাচন কমিশন সেক্রেটারিয়েটের মাধ্যমে যে ৪০.৫৬% ভোট পড়েছে (২)।

কিন্তু আদতে এই সংখ্যাটিকে অনেকে খুব বাড়িয়ে বলা বলেছেন এবং এখনো বলছেন। অন্যদিকে, ইলেকশন ওয়ার্কিং গ্রুপের (ই ডব্লিউ জি) পর্যবেক্ষণ থেকে জানা যায় যে, নির্বাচনে ভোটার উপস্থিতি ছিল ৩০.১%- ৩১.১%। (৩, ৪)

তো এখন কথা হলো, যদি শেষেরটাকেই ধরে নেই যুক্তিযুক্ত, তবে দেখা যাচ্ছে আদতে বাংলাদেশের যে ৪৮% ভোটার এবারের নির্বাচনে তাদের ভোট প্রদান করবার ক্ষমতা রাখতো তাদেরকে পূর্ণ অংশ (=১০০%) ধরলে, এদের  মাঝে ভোট দিয়েছে মাত্র ৩০.১% ভোটার।

তো এখান থেকে খুব সহজে বের করে নেয়া যাচ্ছে সত্যিকার অর্থে এবারের সাম্প্রতিক নির্বাচনে ঠিক কতো শতাংশ ভোটারের ভোটে বর্তমান সংসদ গঠন হতে যাচ্ছে। হিসাব করলে দেখা যাচ্ছে, ১০ম জাতীয় নির্বাচনে বাংলাদেশের সকল ভোটাধিকার দেয়ার ক্ষমতা রাখেন তাদের মধ্যকার মাত্র ১৪.৪৪৮% মানুষের ভোটে নির্বাচিত হয়ে সাংসদরা এবারের সংসদ গঠন করতে যাচ্ছেন।

এটা আসলেই একটা ভয়াবহ খবর। আওয়ামীলীগের জন্য তো আরও বেশি, কারণ এই ১৪.৪৪৮% ভোটের মাঝেরই একটা অংশ তারা পেয়েছে, পুরোটা তো আর পায়নি। অন্যদিকে, এর মাঝেও রয়েছে ভোট জালিয়াতি, একজনে অনেকগুলো ভোট প্রদান করবার বিষয়, অনেকে তো জালভোট দিয়ে সগৌরবে ফেইসবুকেও ফটো আপলোড দিয়েছিল।

কথা হলো যে, এই মাত্র ১৪.৪৪৮% ছাড়া বাকি প্রতিটা মানুষই বর্তমান সংসদ তথা আওয়ামীলীগের উপর চরমভাবে ক্ষ্যাপা থাকবে, যে কোন মূহুর্তে এরা যে কোন ধরনের নাশকতা করে বসতে পারে, আর এই একই সংখ্যা জানিয়ে দিচ্ছে আওয়ামীলীগ নিজে থেকেই জনগণের থেকে নিজেকে বিচ্ছিন করে নিয়েছে। এই জনমানুষ বিচ্ছিন্নতা তাদেরকে ভালই ভোগাবে আগামী দিনগুলো, এমন কি ফেলে দিতে পারে ভয়াবহ কোন পরিস্থিতেও। এখন শুধু দেশটা রক্ষা পেলেই হয়!

সূত্রঃ

১) http://thebengalitimes.com/details.php?pub_no=193&menu_id=1&val=9517 (একই খবর ডয়েচে ওয়েলে- তেও আছে, কিন্তু লিংক খুব বেশি বড় বিধায় এখানে ব্যাবহার করলাম না।)

২) http://www.prothom-alo.com/bangladesh/article/117568/%E0%A6%AD%E0%A7%8B%E0%A6%9F_%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%9C%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%9B%E0%A7%87_%E0%A7%AA%E0%A7%A6.%E0%A7%AB%E0%A7%AC%25

৩) http://www.bonikbarta.com/news/2014/01/07/28189

৪) http://www.natunbarta.com/national/2014/01/06/62839

Bangladesh's Upcoming 2014 National Election: Which party will win?

Download the full report from here: Asia Foundation's Survey Report

Source: The Upcoming 2014 National Election

A majority of respondents (55%) believe that the Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP) will win the next election. Less than 28 percent consider that the ruling Awami League will win the election, while 12 percent did not respond.

In your opinion, which party is likely to win in the next election?

Which direction the country is going

Peoples’ perception about which direction the country is going remains almost static from January this year. 47 percent of respondents think the country is going in the right direction while 44 percent think it is going in the wrong direction. However, as before the urban voters are more skeptic with 52 percent thinking the country is going in the wrong direction while only 37 percent believing it is going in the right direction.

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bangladesh are now going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

Demand for a caretaker government

Respondents were asked if they thought the next election should be held under a caretaker government as in previous elections. A large majority of respondents (77%) think that it should. Clearly this shows that people believe that a peaceful election will not be possible without a neutral caretaker government in place.

Do you think the next election should be held under a neutral caretaker government as in previous elections?

Confidence in the Government

Citizens’ confidence in the Government is based on how its activities have improved their lives, and is based on their assessment of a combination of factors, many of which has been outlined in this report. When asked if they have confidence in the Government, 55 percent of respondents said they have reasonable or high confidence while 45 percent said they have low confidence. Rural respondents and female respondents have higher confidence in the Government than urban respondents, male respondents or youth respondents.

Do you have confidence in the present Government?

Rating of Government’s Performance

How well has the Government performed during its tenure so far? Seventeen areas of Government action were mentioned to respondents and they were asked to rate the Government’s performance as successful or not successful. This rating provides a summary outline of voters’ perception of the Government’s successes and failures during its tenure.

According to more than 30 percent of respondents, the Government appears to have been successful or highly successful in improving education and health facilities and services, increasing availability of pure drinking water, improving the quality of services provided by government offices at upazila/district levels, ensuring adequate fertilizer availability, building new infrastructure (e.g., roads / bridges / culverts) or improving quality of existing infrastructure. However, more than 50 percent of respondents believe the Government was not at all successful in reducing unemployment, keeping food prices under control, reducing corruption in government and in the judicial system, stabilizing fuel prices and controlling terrorism.

Areas in which more than 30% of respondents considered the Government’s performance as successful or highly successful

Areas in which a majority of respondents considered the Government’s performance as not at all successful

'Govt creating civil-war-like situation', Rafiqul Islam Miah says!

The party’s Standing Committee Member Rafiqul Islam Miah made the allegation at a discussion organised by Deshpremik Nagarik Party at Dhaka Reporters Unity on Friday morning.

Rafiq said people are doubtful about the possibilities of the next election being held against the backdrop of senior government advisers calling for continuing the ongoing parliament session beyond its scheduled end on Oct 24.

“Our apprehension after examining this situation is that the government is trying to create a civil-war-like situation as part of a conspiracy to not hold the elections. It is clear from the speeches of the government’s advisers and senior leaders.”

Rafiq also referred to the speeches of AL lawmakers Tofail Ahmed and Suranjit Sengupta in the Parliament wherein they suggested that Parliament should not be dissolved until Jan 24, the day the five-year-term of the current Parliament expires.

“Such statements of the senior MPs of the ruling party prove the government is afraid of holding the election seeing BNP’s popularity. They are applying many tricks and conspiracy,” said Rafiq.

He has called the current Election Commission a subordinate institution of the government.

“Following the order of a government’s intelligence agency it (EC) is going to register a new party called BNF.”

The opposition Chief Whip Zainul Abdin Farroque also spoke at the discussion.

“This is a mystery why politicians like Tofail have suddenly come up with the demand of continuing parliament session even after Oct 24. We believe it is government’s new conspiracy to stick to the power,” said Farroque.

He once again reiterated his party’s resolve to prevent any unilateral election.

Full News: ‘Govt creating civil-war-like situation’

'Mayor Hanif flyover an Eid gift for the city dwellers from the Awami League'

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The 11.7 km 'Mayor Mohammad Hanif Flyover' opened to traffic is a 'gift' to the residents of capital Dhaka ahead of Eid-ul-Azha, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has said.

She opened Bangladesh's largest flyover on Friday afternoon.

It is named after Dhaka City's first elected Mayor.

"This flyover is a gift of Eid-ul-Azha for the city dwellers from the Awami League," she said at the flyover's opening ceremony at the Osmani Memorial Auditorium.

Hasina said the Kuril Flyover, opened to traffic during the Ramadan, was an Eid-ul-Fitr gift to the capital's residents.

The Prime Minister hoped the newly opened flyover would significantly reduce the city's gridlocks.

Hasina said the flyover, a public-private partnership project, adhered to international standards.

Communications with 30 southern and south-western districts would become easier with the flyover in place. She said the Jatrabarhi-Sayedabad-Gulistan-Fulbaria-Palashi road has been upgraded to a four-lane highway with modern facilities.

"Sufferings of Dhaka-bound passengers would reduce," she hoped.

"I wanted to inaugurate it just before the Eid," said the Prime Minister.

About the delay in the flyover's completion, she said she had added several ramps and loops to the structure.

"This flyover will stretch from Palashi to Jatrabarhi. Many more loops and ramps will be added," she said.

Hasina hoped the construction of the Moghbazar-Malibagh flyover would also complete soon.

"We have taken measures to reduce sufferings of the city dwellers and set up ring roads across the capital [to curb traffic congestion].

"I came to Dhaka in 1952 and started living here two years later. We want to build a Dhaka City suitable for living," said Hasina.

The Prime Minister thanked the locals for their cooperation during the construction. "We want to be self-reliant and not beg from others. Our experts have knowledge and prudence."

Hasina also thanked everyone involved for completing the mega project successfully.

The project's Director Md Ashiqur Rahman said the government did not have to provide funds for the project.

"However, five percent of the daily toll realised will be submitted to the fund of the Dhaka City Corporation (South) which will take over the flyover 24 years later," he said.

Full News: 'Mayor Hanif flyover an Eid gift'

USD 28.50 Billion Budgetary Declaration by Muhith for FY 2013- 2014

The Bangladeshi government Thursday unveiled a record 2.22 trillion taka (about $28.50 billion) proposed national budget targeting an economic growth of 7.2 percent for the next 2013-14 fiscal year starting in July.

The country's Finance Minister A.M.A. Muhith placed the fifth annual budget of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ruling Bangladesh Awami League (AL) party government since 2009 before the parliament when opposition legislators boycotted the presentation, reported Xinhua.

In his budget speech, Muhith said: "We began our journey in 2009 keeping in view the goals set out in 'Vision 2021'. Today, we are almost half way through. From the very beginning, our aim was to transform Bangladesh into a middle income country. Every budget we announced was a tool for realizing this goal."

He said many critics commented that the budgets are ambitious. However, the reality turned out quite differently, he added.

"I am pleased to let you know that we have attained outstanding success in achieving the targets as set out in the budgets."

The total outlay of the proposed budget for the next fiscal year 2013-14 (July 2013-June 2014) is 2,224.91 billion taka (about $28.52 billion), up by over 16 percent over that of the original budget of the outgoing fiscal year 2012-13 (July 2012-June 2013).

According to the proposal, the overall budget deficit, including grants, will be 550.32 billion taka ($7.06 billion), or about 4.6 percent of GDP. The deficit will be financed up to 143.98 billion taka (about $1.85 billion) from external sources and about 339.64 billion taka (about $4.35 billion) from domestic sources, it said.

Despite the recessionary shocks, Muhith said, in keeping with developing and emerging Asian economies, the country was able to sustain satisfactory economic growth by pursuing cautious and prudent macroeconomic strategies.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has recently released the provisional estimate of GDP for fiscal year 2012-13 which is 6.03 percent, said the minister.

"We have re-fixed the real economic growth target at 7.2 percent for FY 2013-14," he said.

Although Hasina's ruling AL party welcomed the budget, terming it a pro-people one that will help boost development in the country, her arch rival ex-prime minister Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) rejected it, saying it's "partisan and pro-election budget" with wrong and confusing information and financing the budget would be clouded with uncertainties.

Lawmakers of Khaleda's 18-party alliance, which has long been staging demonstration for restoration of a system for a non-party caretaker government to oversee elections slated for early 2014, launched two walk-outs of the House Wednesday protesting the remarks by two ministers on late president Ziaur Rahman, founder of BNP and a liberation war hero, and his elder son Tarique Rahman, also a senior vice chairman of the party.

Budgetary speech full: National Budget of Bangladesh (FY 13- 14)

News Link: Bangladesh unveils budget of over $28 bn